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If the US went to war with China, who would win?

If the US went to war with China who would winAdmiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He spent the bulk of his operational career in the Pacific, and is author of "2034: A Novel of the Next World War."

A great deal has been written about the possibility of a war between the U.S. and China. It tends to be measured in theoretical terms, and much of the analysis centers on exactly when it might occur. But the vital question is really quite simple: who would win?

No ordinary boats: Cracking the code on China’s Spratly maritime militias

tau-trung-quoc-ap-8970-1618388-6124-7534-1619525895A Chinese fishing vessel appears in a sensitive location—near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, a South China Sea reef, or just offshore from a U.S. military base. Is it an “ordinary” fishing boat, or is it maritime militia?

This straightforward question seldom yields straightforward answers. China does not publish a roster of maritime militia boats. That would undermine the militia’s key advantages—secrecy and deniability. Nor is it common for Chinese sources to recognize the militia affiliations of individual boats. Analysts can gather clues and make a case that a vessel is likely maritime militia, or not. That process requires painstaking effort, and the results are rarely definitive.

Beijing's blatant slanders

beijing blatant slanderOn April 25, the South China Morning Post cited an article from Chinas Naval and Merchant Ship magazine that Vietnam was building its maritime militia in the South China Sea, threatening China's maritime law enforcement and national defence security, insisting that the matter should be taken seriously and dealt with in a timely manner. This article will provide an analysis revealing the truth behind those above-mentioned blatant slanders from the Chinese side.

Anti-China alliance coalescing in South China Sea

AntiChina alliance coalescing in South China SeaMANILA – Major powers are wading deeper into the South China Sea in a series of moves that promise to rile China while answering US calls for like-minded nations to counter jointly Beijing’s rising assertiveness in the crucial and contested maritime area.

Japan recently announced a new package of defense aid to the Philippines, the first-ever under the official development assistance (ODA) mechanism. At the same time, the United Kingdom is deploying its largest-ever naval flotilla to the region in recent memory, led by the newly-minted aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth.

Brace Yourself for the Outcome of Biden’s China Policy Review

Brace Yourself for the Outcome of Bidens China Policy ReviewPeter Beinart’s recent New York Times opinion piece on the Biden administration’s policy toward Taiwan misconstrues the new administration’s approach to Cross-Strait relations, but even more important, fundamentally misunderstands what will be necessary to sustain stability and prosperity in East Asia during a time when China’s increasingly assertive approach toward Taiwan threatens to upend more than four decades of peace in the Western Pacific.

With Swarms of Ships, Beijing Tightens Its Grip on South China Sea

With Swarms of Ships Beijing Tightens Its Grip on South China SeaThe Chinese ships settled in like unwanted guests who wouldn’t leave.

As the days passed, more appeared. They were simply fishing boats, China said, though they did not appear to be fishing. Dozens even lashed themselves together in neat rows, seeking shelter, it was claimed, from storms that never came.

Not long ago, China asserted its claims on the South China Sea by building and fortifying artificial islands in waters also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. Its strategy now is to reinforce those outposts by swarming the disputed waters with vessels, effectively defying the other countries to expel them.

H&M upsets Vietnam after kowtowing to Beijing over ‘problematic map’

HM upsets Vietnam after kowtowing to Beijing over problematic mapSwedish fashion retailer H&M is facing a new protest, this time from social media users in Vietnam who accuse it of kowtowing to China over a map of disputed territories in the South China Sea.

The controversy began on Friday when the Shanghai branch of the Cyberspace Administration of China said it had been alerted by members of the public to a “problematic map of China” on H&M’s website.

Winning Vietnam Defends A Line In The Sand

Winning Vietnam Defends A Line In The SandSince 2019 Vietnam has been visibly improving its military facilities on several of the Spratly islands that China has been claiming even though the islands are closer to Vietnam and were often occupied by Vietnamese civilian or military facilities. The latest Vietnamese improvements are most obvious (via commercial satellite photos) on West Reef and Sin Cowe Island. The most obvious change in West Reef is that it is now larger (28 hectares/70 acres) and most of it is recently dredged up sand. Sim Cowe also had about 11 hectares of land added via dredged up sand. Most of that new land is now covered with military structures, including bunkers for coast defense guns or missiles, radars and ELINT (Electronic Intelligence) sensors plus landing pads (for helicopters) or short airstrips. Although Russia is an ally of China, that has not halted the sale of Russian submarines and other weapons to Vietnam. The United States recently proposed installing about $5 billion worth of missiles and sensors on islands within or near the South China Sea that are threatened by China.

How U.S.-China War in the South China Sea Could Start in 2034

How USChina War in the South China Sea Could Start in 2034In the year 2034, U.S. naval destroyers enter the waters of the South China Sea, where they eventually encounter a heavily armed Chinese vessel.

Apparently, it all goes downhill from there.

Relentless cyberattacks put a stranglehold on the United States’ ability for strategic action, and the devastating sea battles lead to thousands of lives lost on both sides.

That’s the lethal scenario imagined in the recently published 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, which was co-authored by combat veteran Elliot Ackerman and Adm. James Stavridis, a former supreme allied commander of NATO.

Beijing’s focus on maritime law ‘reflects rising concerns over South China Sea’

Beijings focus on maritime law reflects rising concerns over South China SeaBeijing’s plan for the next five years includes a call to mitigate risks and prepare for legal battles over its maritime disputes, which analysts say reflects growing concerns over the South China Sea.

The plan – tabled at the ongoing annual legislative sessions in Beijing – also calls for China to draw up a basic maritime law, a task carried over from the previous five-year period.

“[We] must study the current circumstances, mitigate risks and [prepare for] legal struggles,” the plan to 2025 says. “[We] must resolutely defend national maritime interests.”

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